The International Grains Council (IGC) has warned that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not quickly restore normal shipping patterns, as minesweeping and vessel clearance are needed first. A preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the strait is expected to be signed on June 19, following months of disrupted trade. The strait typically handles about 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, but current traffic is below 10%. While a slight increase in shipping is anticipated post-reopening, full normalization may take time as vessel owners seek assurance of safety. Elevated insurance costs could further delay
recovery. Energy shipments will likely be prioritized, with the Gulf region having sufficient grain and oilseed inventories. Fertilizer supply chains will also take time to recover, impacting agricultural costs and operations.
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